Resource Unpredictability, mistrust, and war: a cross-cultural study

Controlling for mistrust in a multiple regression analysis, natural disasters are positively associated with overall warfare (254)

R-squared is higher in nonstate societies compared with overall sample (R=.82 vs. .71)

Test
Test Name	Support	Significance	Coefficient	Tail
multiple regression	Supported	p<.05	beta=.59 overall; .63 in nonstate societies	One-tailed

Variables
Variable Name	Variable Type	OCM Term(s)
Mistrust	Combined	Transmission Of Cultural Norms
Natural Disasters	Independent	Disasters, Gratification And Control Of Hunger
Warfare, Frequency Of	Dependent	Ingroup Antagonisms, Instigation Of War, Warfare

Main Author	Published Year	Hypothesis	Supported	Variables Tested
Ember, Carol R.	1992	Controlling for natural disasters in a multiple regression analysis, mistrust is positively associated with overall warfare (254)	Supported	3	Cite Related Hypotheses More By Author
Ember, Carol R.	1997	When included in a model testing the relationship between frequency of warfare, natrual disasters, and socialization for mistrust, food producing will be a significant predictor of frequency of warfare (11).	Not Supported	4	Cite Related Hypotheses More By Author
Korotayev, Andrey V.	2008	Threat of natural disasters will be negatively related to warfare frequency in state societies	Supported	2	Cite Related Hypotheses More By Author
Ember, Carol R.	1992	When people fight, they will usually take natural resources from others	Supported	2	Cite Related Hypotheses More By Author
Peregrine, Peter N.		A network-oriented polity will become more likely with warfare, and also increase the likelihood of warfare (6).	Supported	4	Cite Related Hypotheses More By Author