Resource Unpredictability, mistrust, and war: a cross-cultural study

The Journal of Conflict Resolution • Vol/Iss. 36 • Published In • Pages: 242-262 •
By Ember, Carol R., Ember, Melvin

Abstract

The article tests theories that may explain why warfare frequency varies from society to society. The focus is on ecological problems, particularly different kinds of resource scarcity, but social and psychological theories are also tested with both bivariate and multivariate analyses. Because unpredictable disasters are such a strong predictor in nonstate societies, the authors theorize that war may mostly be caused by a fear of nature.

Samples

Sample Used Coded Data Comment
Standard Cross Cultural Sample (SCCS)CombinationResource scarcity measures and warfare measures are new, but some variables on the socialization of children and social complexity were taken from others' coded data

Hypotheses (6)

HypothesisSupported
Resource problems will be associated with more war (243-244).Supported
A short supply of women will be positively associated with the frequency of warfare--Divale and Harris (251)Not Supported
Controlling for mistrust in a multiple regression analysis, natural disasters are positively associated with overall warfare (254)Supported
Controlling for natural disasters in a multiple regression analysis, mistrust is positively associated with overall warfare (254)Supported
Need satisfaction in childhood will be a negative predictor of warfare frequencyPartially supported
When people fight, they will usually take natural resources from othersSupported
Documents and Hypotheses Filed By: Kate Cummings  Jessie Cohen